How the world really works – Vaclav Smil – Review

Vaclav asks an interesting question, can humanity realize all it’s aspirations within the safe boundaries of our biosphere? He attempts to determine the answer covering a range of human actions, right from farming practices, mode of travel, economic strata of different regions and also touching upon discoveries along the way.

The broad intent of the book is to give indications on how the world is progressing towards net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Though Vaclav states quite a few times that he doesn’t prefer being optimist or pessimist, his indications were clearly pointed towards a global arena not even getting close to the 2050 target. There are definitely abundant reasons to justify his indications and the following pointers throw some light.

*Even till the fag end of 19^th century, 90% of all mechanical energy was extracted through animate power, in simple terms it refers to physical effort of animals and humans aligned towards the output required for existential needs. Inanimate power in the era preceding 20th century would largely bank upon burning wood and charcoal. However, the technological progress made in 20th century led to the equation being completely flipped in the 21^st century wherein inanimate power dominates the proceedings. Nonrenewable energy sources like fossil fuel contributes super significant share of global energy demand leaving behind undesirable carbon footprints.

*Just to get 1 kg of a bread loaf onto your table consumes approximately 250 ml of energy generated by fossil fuels. Again imagine the level of carbon footprints that currently entails basic necessity of human existence.   

*In terms of economics, 19th century shipping industry offers interesting insights. The first steam powered ship set sail in 1838, this was an era when sail ships dominated despite taking many months to move from one continent to another and high dependence on seasonal wind direction. Sail ships remained competitive for over 4 decades due to economics before being tipped over by steam ships. The insights are clear, unless a new technology doesn't cater to economics and scale, adoption is bound to be slow or minimal. 

*Finally, the usage of nitrogen fertilizers (which contributes significantly to greenhouse gases) to increase the crop yield by a factor of 2 or more. We are living in an era wherein the crop yield across the globe without fertilizers would suffice the needs of roughly 3.5 billion people. This literally means when it comes to crop yield, the globe is already on steroids and half the global population need to sleep hungry without it. 

I have not even touched upon the impact of cement, steel and plastics but the direction of the narrative is crystal clear. Unless a breakthrough innovation can replace the non-renewable energy both in terms of scale and economics, we are headed for a catastrophic turn of events. So, does it mean the world is driving towards doomsday or will humans surpass the herculean challenge?

As the author points out, we still don’t have a reasonable model that can effectively forecast the complex interplay of nature and anthropogenic factors. Doomsday have been predicted earlier as well but humans have found a way out. 

Vaclav’s narrative does offer depth in a bunch of critical areas but for a bibliophile who wants to understand the various components in play and understand the overall framework with respect to greenhouse gas emissions, I would recommend Bill Gates book on climate change.

However, what’s surprising in both Bill Gates and Vaclav’s narrative of climate change is that the beneficial impact of afforestation is largely underplayed.